Political Risk Assessment: Turkey’s Black Sea Doctrine

In this geopolitical risk analysis, I examined Turkey’s strategic position in the Black Sea during the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the implications of invoking the Montreux Convention. I analyzed historical power dynamics, Turkey’s economic and military dependencies on Russia, and the cascading risks posed by Russian aggression in ungoverned or contested regions.

Using scenario planning, I identified four key risks — from energy vulnerability to military escalation — and proposed mitigation strategies grounded in systemic analysis. This project reflects my ability to apply structured risk frameworks to evolving international crises.

Tools Used: PowerPoint, open-source intelligence (OSINT), geopolitical risk modeling
Focus Areas: NATO-Russia dynamics, maritime chokepoints, Turkish foreign policy